Supply · mix

Compete with China. Run more than Kit-7.

China is cheaper, faster, and denser. Do not contest a catalog harmonic on price. Contest the finished US-origin actuator — and keep the same four lines full with cobot, exo, press, and hand catalog when a humanoid OEM slips.

Magnet finish: ~90%
RE mine: ~70%
Catalog gear: ⅓–½
Kit-7 hours: 55%

What they monopolise or do better

Six chokepoints. China does not own every gear. It owns the midstream, the park, and the permit.

NdFeB magnets

China: ~90% of magnet finishing. ~70% of rare-earth mining.
Why they win: Grain-boundary diffusion, micro-arc segments, weeks not quarters. Dual-use export licenses since Oct 2025.
Houston: Buy magnets, do not make them. Dual-source MP Materials / Japan / recycle. Design GBD, low Dy/Tb. Finished actuator is US-origin.

Risk. Tesla called out Optimus delays on the 2025 magnet rules. One permit can stop a US line.

Strain-wave cups

China: Leaderdrive, Shuanghuan, Zhongda now contest HDSI. Catalog harmonics at ⅓–½ Japan price.
Why they win: Pearl River mill parks, 5-axis already on EV gears, MOQ that a US job shop will not quote.
Houston: Hunt cuts 50/70/90 housings and cups next door. Line H is the stack, not a naked gear. Firmware is the SKU.

Risk. Qualify is 12–18 months. When those parks fill, lead time is six months plus a license.

Planetary roller screws

China: Beite and peers building dedicated PRS plants. 14th Five-Year Plan names the part.
Why they win: Swiss GSA/Rollvis still own the high end. China is localising the humanoid size class first.
Houston: Line L assembles inverted R32. Screws dual-sourced (EU/JP + qualified CN). Nut, tube, stator, test are Houston.

Risk. Each humanoid wants several PRS. There is no US volume mill for inverted 32 mm class.

Frameless motors + drives

China: EV inverter and drone parks reuse the same laminations and MOSFETs.
Why they win: Cost, iteration, and a complete servo+reducer+battery cluster in one city.
Houston: One 50/70/90 stator family, one 48 V stage, seven flash maps. Laminations can be US or allied. Flash is here.

Risk. A US OEM that buys the whole actuator from Shenzhen inherits the magnet license on every serial.

Absolute encoders

China: Catching up. Heidenhain, Tamagawa, Renishaw still own the 19-bit class.
Why they win: Price on 17-bit magnetic. Not yet the hollow dual-absolute stack.
Houston: Dual absolute is a buy. Same part on all seven SKUs — one purchasing risk, not seven.

Risk. If JP/EU allocation goes to their home humanoids, US plants wait.

Tendon / dexterous

China: Unitree, AgiBot, and a dense micro-actuator belt. Hands iterate in months.
Why they win: Volume, silicone, and cable assemblies at consumer-electronics speed.
Houston: Line F is a micro-cell. Ten F16 per cassette. Any 8–20 tendon hand that takes our flange.

Risk. A US humanoid that imports the hand imports the license problem into the forearm.

China · Cost

⅓–½

Catalog harmonic and QDD. Do not pretend Houston beats Shenzhen on a $80 gear.

China · Speed

weeks

Fixture change and a new OD in the same industrial park. US qualify is a year.

China · Cluster

one city

Magnet, lamination, cup, PCB, battery, casting. EV reuse. Houston is a hall plus Hunt.

China · Policy

named

Robotics in the Five-Year Plan. PRS and reducers are industrial policy, not a startup.

The Houston play

Sell serials that do not stop when Beijing asks for a form. Hunt already cuts metal on Almeda. Apptronik is in Austin.

Origin

Finished actuator is US-serial. No 301 stack on the outbound kit. No dual-use magnet license on the thing the OEM installs.

License risk

China can stop magnets, cups, or PRS with a form. A US humanoid OEM cannot ship if the joint is a CN serial. We sell the joint as a Houston serial.

Lead time

When Leaderdrive and Beite queues fill, six months is the number. Hunt mill/turn is already on Almeda. First articles do not wait on a boat.

Integrated, not naked

HDSI is pivoting the same way: gear + motor + drive + encoder. China still dumps reducers. Kit-7 is a flashed module with a serial quality record.

Customer geography

Apptronik is in Austin. Oilfield cobots are already Hunt’s customers. DoD and primes will not take a CN strain-wave in the shoulder.

Do not win the wrong race

Leave the $40 catalog harmonic. Win 12-week Kit-7 and cobot arms for OEMs who cannot pause on a permit.

Still imported. Named on purpose.

NdFeB magnet arcs — dual-source, never single-source CN.
Cross-roller and thin-section bearings until a US cell qualifies.
PRS screws in 32 mm class until an allied mill is on contract.
19-bit hollow encoders — JP/EU.
Special cup steel / nitride if Hunt’s heat-treat does not pass first-article.

One line, many products

Four cells. Firmware selects the SKU. Catalog is not a side hustle — it is how the hall stays at 85% OEE when a humanoid program slips a quarter.

Kit-7 is 55% of hours. Catalog fills the rest so the robots do not wait on a humanoid OEM.
Changeover is a flash map, a flange plate, and a tote recipe. Not a tool change on the shift.
One 48 V bus, one drive PCB, one connector. The SKU is firmware plus the mechanical unique (bearing, pin, stroke, capstan).
Do not add a fifth line. If a product does not fit H, P, L, or F, it is not this plant.

Line H · 48 s

Harmonic rotary · 50 / 70 / 90

Shoulder, hip yaw, wrist, neck. 15 per Kit-7.

Changeover. Wave-generator bearing + flash map + output flange. Same press, same fence.

Product	SKU	Fit
6-axis cobot arm	H90 / H70 / H50	UR-class modules. Different flange, same stack. 18% of nameplate.
Wafer / FOUP wrist	H50 / H70	Semiconductor handler. Clean-package, same zero-backlash cup.
Cinema / broadcast gimbal	H50	Pan-tilt. Catalog duty, not humanoid shock.
Palletizer wrist	H90	End of a conventional arm. Eats Line H idle time between Kit-7.
Surgical wrist (later)	H50	Needs ISO 13485. Same cell. Do not quote it in year one.

Line P · 56 s

Planetary QDD · 80 / 110

Hip pitch, knee, ankle. 10 per Kit-7.

Changeover. Carrier pin + optional liquid jacket + flash. Same sun/planet family.

Product	SKU	Fit
Quadruped hip / knee	P110 / P80	Spot-class. Walking shock is the same physics. 12% of nameplate.
Industrial exo	P110	Backdrivable hip/knee for warehouse and farm. Same QDD, different housing.
AMR hub / steer	P80	Differential drive and steer modules for the same AGVs in this hall.
Oilfield capstan / winch	P110	Hunt already sells into this. Catalog torque, IP54, 48 V or 600 V flash.
Rehab gait trainer	P80	Low-volume medical. Same cell, longer NRE.

Line L · 72 s

Inverted roller-screw · R32

Elbow and spine. 4 per Kit-7.

Changeover. Stroke (50–210 mm) is a tube and screw cut. Same nut, same 70 mm stator as H70.

Product	SKU	Fit
Press-fit spindle	R32 · 50–210 mm	Machine-tool and EV battery module press. 8% of nameplate as industrial linear.
Aircraft seat / hatch	R32	Hunt aerospace already in the west shop. Linear, not rotary.
Mold ejector / join	R32	High-force, short stroke. Catalog, not humanoid.
Prosthetic knee linear	R32 short	Low volume. Same inverted PRS, different rod-end.
Subsea needle	R32	Oilfield. IP later. Same nut if the screw is long enough.

Line F · 18 s

Tendon cassette · F16

Ten per forearm × two hands. 20 per Kit-7.

Changeover. Capstan count and cable length. Same micro-cell, vision on every station.

Product	SKU	Fit
Third-party dexterous hand	F16 × 8–20	Any hand that takes the cassette flange. 7% of nameplate as pack.
Prosthetic hand	F16 × 5–12	Lighter duty, same motor.
Haptic / exo glove	F16	Wearable. Catalog in the gaps between Kit-7.
Soft gripper cassette	F16 × 4	Warehouse pick. Four tendons, same cell.
Cable surgical tool	F16	Year-two NRE. Do not hold Draw A on it.

McKinsey humanoid supply chain (Apr 2026); SCMP / Tesla FY25 magnet remarks; Adamas on NdFeB; Leaderdrive / Shuanghuan / Beite public capacity. China shares are industry ranges, not a Hunt as-built.

The cheque Platform Four lines